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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 8 at the 30

Cincinnati Bengals 13 – Los Angeles Chargers 24

What Actually Happened

(9:57) 2-E.McPherson 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +0.91 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.66 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.22 EP
KICK +1.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.97 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model