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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 14 at the 61

Cincinnati Bengals 22 – Los Angeles Chargers 24

What Actually Happened

(1:48) 10-K.Huber punts 46 yards to LAC 15, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 7-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO -1.35 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.97 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 61, worth -3.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 20, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model