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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 13 at the 88

Los Angeles Chargers 24 – Cincinnati Bengals 22

What Actually Happened

(:45) 1-T.Long punts 45 yards to CIN 43, Center-54-M.Overton, fair catch by 16-T.Irwin.

The Three Options

GO -3.11 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.83 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 88, worth -5.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 46, worth -2.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model