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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 20 at the 85

Cincinnati Bengals 22 – Los Angeles Chargers 31

What Actually Happened

(12:58) 10-K.Huber punts 38 yards to LAC 47, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 7-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO -3.00 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.71 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 85, worth -4.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 43, worth -2.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model