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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 57

Los Angeles Chargers 38 – Cincinnati Bengals 22

What Actually Happened

(6:56) 1-T.Long punts 36 yards to CIN 21, Center-54-M.Overton, fair catch by 16-T.Irwin.

The Three Options

GO +0.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.81 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 57, worth -2.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 17, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP