4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 5 at the 25

Los Angeles Chargers 38 – Cincinnati Bengals 22

What Actually Happened

(1:15) 6-D.Hopkins 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Overton, Holder-1-T.Long.

The Three Options

GO +0.17 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +1.47 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25, worth -0.74 EP
KICK +1.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 35, worth -1.08 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model