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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 6 at the 25

Los Angeles Chargers 6 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(6:33) 6-D.Hopkins 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Overton, Holder-1-T.Long.

The Three Options

GO +0.98 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.64 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25, worth -1.28 EP
KICK +1.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 35, worth -2.16 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model