4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 9 at the 46

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(12:09) 3-J.Berry punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-42-A.DePaola, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.78 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.44 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 46, worth -3.10 EP
KICK -1.19 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.46 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -3.24 EP
PUNT -0.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 13, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model