MIN @ DET — 4th & Data

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HC Mike Zimmer

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HC Dan Campbell

Sunday 2021-12-05 · 13:00 Ford Field, Detroit US 🏟 Dome Spread -7.0 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

MIN

64.6%

DET

35.4%

🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

QB edge to MIN: Jared Goff (DET) -0.113 vs Kirk Cousins (MIN) +0.165 EPA/dropback
DET offense: -0.130 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
DET defense: +0.113 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
MIN offense: +0.027 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)
Indoors — weather neutralised
DET on 3 more days rest than MIN

Predicted Final Score

MIN 25

–

DET 20

Projected margin: MIN by 5 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

MIN

Camryn Bynum S Out Ankle

Dalvin Cook RB Out Shoulder

Christian Darrisaw T Out Ankle

Kene Nwangwu RB Questionable Illness

Mackensie Alexander CB Questionable Ribs

Anthony Barr LB Questionable Knee

Eric Kendricks LB Questionable Biceps

DET

Trey Flowers LB Out Knee

Bobby Price CB Out Shoulder

Jalen Reeves-Maybin LB Out Shoulder

D'Andre Swift RB Out Shoulder

John Penisini DT Questionable Illness

Michael Brockers DE Questionable Knee

Matt Nelson T Questionable Ankle

Penei Sewell T Questionable Illness

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIN 27

–

DET 29

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 06:54 FG MIN (6:54) 1-G.Joseph 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry. MIN 3 – DET 0
Q1 01:03 FG MIN (1:03) 1-G.Joseph 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry. MIN 6 – DET 0
Q2 13:54 TD DET (13:54) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 88-T.Hockenson for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 6 – DET 6
Q2 09:51 TD DET (9:51) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 89-B.Wright for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 6 – DET 13
Q2 01:37 FG DET (1:37) 6-R.Patterson 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox. MIN 6 – DET 17
Q2 00:10 FG DET (:10) 6-R.Patterson 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox. MIN 6 – DET 20
Q3 09:30 FG MIN (9:30) 1-G.Joseph 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry. MIN 9 – DET 20
Q3 06:20 TD MIN (6:20) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 25-A.Mattison right end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 15 – DET 20
Q3 02:01 FG DET (2:01) 6-R.Patterson 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox. MIN 15 – DET 23
Q4 12:02 TD MIN (12:02) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 17-K.Osborn for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on DET-53-C.Harris, Roughing the Passer, 1 yard, enforced between downs. MIN 21 – DET 23
Q4 01:54 TD MIN (1:54) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 18-J.Jefferson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 27 – DET 23
Q4 00:04 TD DET (:04) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 14-A.St. Brown for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 27 – DET 29

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 MIN 4th & 9 at the 46

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36% p(FG) 44%

(12:09) 3-J.Berry punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-42-A.DePaola, Touchback.
Q1 DET 4th & 1 at the 59

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 69%

(10:00) 16-J.Goff up the middle to DET 41 for no gain (98-D.Wonnum, 21-B.Breeland).
Q1 MIN 4th & 10 at the 23

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31% p(FG) 89%

(6:54) 1-G.Joseph 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry.
Q1 DET 4th & 15 at the 80

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 29%

(5:22) 3-J.Fox punts 62 yards to MIN 18, Center-47-S.Daly. 12-D.Westbrook to MIN 34 for 16 yards (26-I.Melifonwu).
Q1 MIN 4th & 13 at the 13

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 26% p(FG) 96%

(1:03) 1-G.Joseph 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry.
Q2 MIN 4th & 8 at the 59

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 39%

(7:15) 3-J.Berry punts 49 yards to DET 10, Center-42-A.DePaola. 11-K.Raymond to DET 10 for no gain (85-D.Chisena).
Q2 DET 4th & 7 at the 13

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32% p(FG) 96%

(1:37) 6-R.Patterson 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.
Q2 MIN 4th & 10 at the 42

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.45 EP

p(convert) 34% p(FG) 54%

(:35) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins sacked at DET 45 for -3 yards (99-J.Okwara).
Q3 DET 4th & 8 at the 73

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 37%

(14:24) 3-J.Fox punts 47 yards to MIN 26, Center-47-S.Daly. 12-D.Westbrook to MIN 28 for 2 yards (45-J.Cabinda).
Q3 MIN 4th & 10 at the 12

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30% p(FG) 96%

(9:30) 1-G.Joseph 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry.
Q3 DET 4th & 20 at the 85

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 25%

(8:00) 3-J.Fox punts 57 yards to MIN 28, Center-47-S.Daly. 12-D.Westbrook to MIN 33 for 5 yards (18-K.Hodge, 35-G.Igwebuike).
Q3 DET 4th & 5 at the 31

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40% p(FG) 78%

(2:01) 6-R.Patterson 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.
Q4 MIN 4th & 11 at the 56

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34%

(5:39) 3-J.Berry punts 37 yards to DET 19, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.
Q4 DET 4th & 1 at the 72 late-game

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 71%

(4:08) 16-J.Goff sacked at DET 21 for -7 yards (48-B.Lynch). FUMBLES (48-B.Lynch) [79-K.Willekes], RECOVERED by MIN-48-B.Lynch at DET 19.
Q4 DET 4th & 2 at the 11 late-game

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.92 EP

p(convert) 52% p(FG) 97%

(:04) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 14-A.St. Brown for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.