Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 8 at the 73

Detroit Lions 20 – Minnesota Vikings 6

(14:24) 3-J.Fox punts 47 yards to MIN 26, Center-47-S.Daly. 12-D.Westbrook to MIN 28 for 2 yards (45-J.Cabinda).

The Three Options

GO -1.89 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.94 EP
63% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 73, worth -4.16 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model