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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 5 at the 31

Detroit Lions 20 – Minnesota Vikings 15

What Actually Happened

(2:01) 6-R.Patterson 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +0.99 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.39 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 31, worth -1.23 EP
KICK +1.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 41, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model