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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 59

Detroit Lions 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(10:00) 16-J.Goff up the middle to DET 41 for no gain (98-D.Wonnum, 21-B.Breeland).

The Three Options

GO +0.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.56 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 59, worth -2.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 18, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model