Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 11 at the 56

Minnesota Vikings 21 – Detroit Lions 23

(5:39) 3-J.Berry punts 37 yards to DET 19, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO -0.84 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.67 EP
66% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 56, worth -2.62 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model