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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 72

Detroit Lions 23 – Minnesota Vikings 21

What Actually Happened

(4:08) 16-J.Goff sacked at DET 21 for -7 yards (48-B.Lynch). FUMBLES (48-B.Lynch) [79-K.Willekes], RECOVERED by MIN-48-B.Lynch at DET 19.

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +0.81 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 72, worth -3.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.31 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 30, worth -1.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model