4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 13 at the 13

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(1:03) 1-G.Joseph 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +1.13 EP
  • 26% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.63 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 13, worth -0.50 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 23, worth -1.15 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model