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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 19 at the 49

Buffalo Bills 7 – New England Patriots 11

What Actually Happened

(5:23) 3-M.Haack punts 33 yards to NE 16, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-33-S.Neal.

The Three Options

GO -1.08 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.97 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.67 EP
KICK -1.87 EP
  • 17% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 83% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 14, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model