4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
NE Away

New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
@
BUF Home

Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
Monday 2021-12-06 · 20:15 New Era Field, Orchard Park US 🌧 Rain Spread 3.0 O/U 40.0

Win Probability

NE
44.3%
BUF
55.7%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NE offense: +0.095 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • BUF offense: +0.133 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • BUF defense: -0.149 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • NE defense: -0.192 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • Wind 27 mph
  • QB edge to BUF: Josh Allen (BUF) +0.167 vs Mac Jones (NE) +0.121 EPA/dropback
  • BUF on 3 more days rest than NE

Predicted Final Score

NE 21
–
BUF 23
Projected margin: BUF by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

NE

Ronnie Perkins LB Questionable Illness
David Andrews C Questionable Shoulder
Christian Barmore DT Questionable Knee
Ja'Whaun Bentley LB Questionable Ribs
Brandon Bolden RB Questionable Knee
Trenton Brown T Questionable Calf
Nick Folk K Questionable left Knee
Gunner Olszewski WR Questionable Ankle

BUF

Cody Ford G Questionable Biceps
Efe Obada DE Questionable Hip
Reggie Gilliam FB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 14
–
BUF 10

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 20 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:28 TD NE (5:28) 37-D.Harris left tackle for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 6 – BUF 0
  • Q1 02:07 TD BUF (2:07) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 13-G.Davis for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 8 – BUF 6
  • Q2 11:31 FG NE (11:31) 6-N.Folk 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. NE 11 – BUF 7
  • Q3 06:39 FG BUF (6:39) 2-T.Bass 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack. NE 11 – BUF 10
  • Q4 13:05 FG NE (13:05) 6-N.Folk 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. NE 14 – BUF 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NE 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (12:55) 7-J.Bailey punts 36 yards to BUF 40, Center-49-J.Cardona. 23-M.Hyde to BUF 48 for 8 yards (22-Co.Davis).

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 7 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 17%

    (11:26) 3-M.Haack punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback. Kick into end zone.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 5 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (9:15) 7-J.Bailey punts 15 yards to NE 40, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 17 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (2:19) 3-M.Haack punts 54 yards to NE 18, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 1-N.Harry MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by BUF-33-S.Neal at NE 14.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 2 at the 23
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 83%

    (11:31) 6-N.Folk 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 19 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 17%

    (5:23) 3-M.Haack punts 33 yards to NE 16, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-33-S.Neal.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 6 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (3:10) 7-J.Bailey punts 46 yards to BUF 34, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 3 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (1:56) 3-M.Haack punts 34 yards to NE 25, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 2 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 15%

    (:07) 7-J.Bailey punts 45 yards to BUF 5, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-43-C.Munson.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 5 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (13:49) 3-M.Haack punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback. Kick into end zone.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 17 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (9:27) 7-J.Bailey punts 39 yards to BUF 37, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-29-J.Bethel.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 7 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 91%

    (6:39) 2-T.Bass 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 1 at the 33
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 59%

    (3:09) 10-M.Jones up the middle to BUF 32 for 1 yard (99-H.Phillips). Buffalo challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)

  • Q4 NE 4th & 15 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 92%

    (13:05) 6-N.Folk 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 15 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 93%

    (7:28) 2-T.Bass 33 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 4 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (5:56) 7-J.Bailey punts 71 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback. Kick into end zone.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 14 at the 18 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.03 EP
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 90%

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep middle to 13-G.Davis (41-M.Bryant).