4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 11 at the 76

New England Patriots 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(12:55) 7-J.Bailey punts 36 yards to BUF 40, Center-49-J.Cardona. 23-M.Hyde to BUF 48 for 8 yards (22-Co.Davis).

The Three Options

GO -2.63 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.34 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 76, worth -4.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -2.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 34, worth -2.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model