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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 5 at the 59

Buffalo Bills 7 – New England Patriots 11

What Actually Happened

(13:49) 3-M.Haack punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback. Kick into end zone.

The Three Options

GO -0.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.82 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 59, worth -3.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.67 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 18, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model