Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 17 at the 76

New England Patriots 11 – Buffalo Bills 7

(9:27) 7-J.Bailey punts 39 yards to BUF 37, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-29-J.Bethel.

The Three Options

GO -2.73 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.97 EP
72% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 76, worth -4.57 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model