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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Buffalo Bills
4th & 7 at the 17
Buffalo Bills 7 – New England Patriots 11
What Actually Happened
(6:39) 2-T.Bass 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack.
The Three Options
GO
+1.56 EP
-
34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.40 EP
- 66% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 17, worth -0.46 EP
KICK
+1.97 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- 91% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
- 9% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 27, worth -0.83 EP
PUNT
+0.15 EP
- New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP
The Verdict
Chose KICK
✓ matched the model
