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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 7 at the 49

Buffalo Bills 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(11:26) 3-M.Haack punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback. Kick into end zone.

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.44 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.51 EP
KICK -1.69 EP
  • 17% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 83% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.52 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 14, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model