4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 15 at the 15

Buffalo Bills 10 – New England Patriots 14

What Actually Happened

(7:28) 2-T.Bass 33 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +0.33 EP
  • 24% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.19 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 15, worth -1.18 EP
KICK +1.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.25 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 25, worth -1.75 EP
PUNT -0.97 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model