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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 14 at the 18

Buffalo Bills 10 – New England Patriots 14

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep middle to 13-G.Davis (41-M.Bryant).

The Three Options

GO +0.87 EP
What Happened
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.25 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 18, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.21 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 28, worth -0.85 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.03 EP