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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 9 at the 16

New York Giants 3 – Miami Dolphins 10

What Actually Happened

(10:33) 5-G.Gano 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.00 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.39 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 16, worth -0.77 EP
KICK +1.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26, worth -1.23 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model