NYG @ MIA — 4th & Data

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HC Joe Judge

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HC Brian Flores

Sunday 2021-12-05 · 13:00 Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens US 🌧 Rain Spread 6.5 O/U 40.0

Win Probability

NYG

30.7%

MIA

69.3%

🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

QB edge to MIA: Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) +0.164 vs Mike Glennon (NYG) -0.114 EPA/dropback (NYG starting Mike Glennon in place of Daniel Jones)
NYG offense: -0.090 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
MIA defense: -0.036 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NYG 18

–

MIA 25

Projected margin: MIA by 7 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

NYG

Trent Harris LB Out Ankle

Adoree' Jackson CB Out Quadricep

Kaden Smith TE Out Knee

Daniel Jones QB Out Neck

Kadarius Toney WR Doubtful Oblique

Sterling Shepard WR Doubtful Quadricep

Nate Solder T Questionable Elbow

Cullen Gillaspia FB Questionable Calf

John Ross WR Questionable Illness

Kyle Rudolph TE Questionable Ankle

MIA

Phillip Lindsay RB Doubtful Ankle

Adam Shaheen TE Doubtful Knee

Trill Williams CB Doubtful Hamstring

Brandon Jones S Questionable Ankle

Jaelan Phillips LB Questionable Hip

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYG 9

–

MIA 20

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q2 13:17 FG NYG (13:17) 5-G.Gano 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon. NYG 3 – MIA 0
Q2 07:12 FG MIA (7:12) 7-J.Sanders 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-5-M.Palardy. NYG 3 – MIA 3
Q2 00:31 TD MIA (:31) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 86-M.Hollins for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 3 – MIA 9
Q3 10:33 FG NYG (10:33) 5-G.Gano 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon. NYG 6 – MIA 10
Q4 11:13 TD MIA (11:13) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 87-I.Ford for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 6 – MIA 16
Q4 05:04 FG NYG (5:04) 5-G.Gano 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon. NYG 9 – MIA 17
Q4 01:16 FG MIA (1:16) 7-J.Sanders 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-5-M.Palardy. NYG 9 – MIA 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 NYG 4th & 3 at the 47

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP

p(convert) 50% p(FG) 32%

(10:51) 9-R.Dixon punts 36 yards to MIA 11, Center-58-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 8-J.Holland.
Q1 MIA 4th & 6 at the 60

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 42%

(7:06) 5-M.Palardy punts 53 yards to NYG 7, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 83-P.Cooper.
Q1 MIA 4th & 11 at the 98

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 37%

(1:01) 5-M.Palardy punts 50 yards to NYG 48, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 83-P.Cooper to MIA 37 for 15 yards (42-C.Fejedelem).
Q2 NYG 4th & 10 at the 21

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28% p(FG) 89%

(13:17) 5-G.Gano 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Q2 MIA 4th & 6 at the 30

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38% p(FG) 75%

(7:12) 7-J.Sanders 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-5-M.Palardy.
Q2 NYG 4th & 4 at the 52

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 46% p(FG) 21%

(4:28) 9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to MIA 11, Center-58-C.Kreiter, downed by NYG-47-C.Brown.
Q3 MIA 4th & 4 at the 69

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 50%

(14:13) 5-M.Palardy punts 65 yards to NYG 4, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 83-P.Cooper to NYG 15 for 11 yards (43-A.Van Ginkel).
Q3 NYG 4th & 9 at the 16

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 29% p(FG) 94%

(10:33) 5-G.Gano 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Q3 MIA 4th & 2 at the 74

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP

p(convert) 62%

(8:31) 5-M.Palardy punts 39 yards to NYG 35, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 83-P.Cooper.
Q3 NYG 4th & 10 at the 65

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33%

(7:32) 9-R.Dixon punts 45 yards to MIA 20, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 17-J.Waddle to MIA 27 for 7 yards (20-J.Love).
Q3 NYG 4th & 2 at the 46

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP

p(convert) 57% p(FG) 34%

(5:03) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Touchback.
Q3 MIA 4th & 8 at the 61

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 37%

(3:40) 5-M.Palardy punts 46 yards to NYG 15, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 83-P.Cooper.
Q4 NYG 4th & 20 at the 83

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 25%

(15:00) 9-R.Dixon punts 44 yards to MIA 39, Center-58-C.Kreiter, downed by NYG-20-J.Love.
Q4 NYG 4th & 18 at the 83

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 26%

(10:20) 9-R.Dixon punts 36 yards to MIA 47, Center-58-C.Kreiter, downed by NYG-20-J.Love. PENALTY on NYG-31-K.Crossen, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at MIA 47.
Q4 MIA 4th & 6 at the 34

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38% p(FG) 66%

(8:47) 7-J.Sanders 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-5-M.Palardy.
Q4 NYG 4th & 2 at the 38

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 56% p(FG) 56%

(6:40) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley left tackle to MIA 35 for 3 yards (98-R.Davis; 8-J.Holland).
Q4 NYG 4th & 8 at the 33

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32% p(FG) 69%

(5:04) 5-G.Gano 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Q4 MIA 4th & 8 at the 30 late-game

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34% p(FG) 75%

(1:16) 7-J.Sanders 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-5-M.Palardy.