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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 2 at the 74

Miami Dolphins 10 – New York Giants 6

What Actually Happened

(8:31) 5-M.Palardy punts 39 yards to NYG 35, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 83-P.Cooper.

The Three Options

GO -0.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.24 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 74, worth -4.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.31 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 32, worth -1.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP