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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 10 at the 65

New York Giants 6 – Miami Dolphins 10

What Actually Happened

(7:32) 9-R.Dixon punts 45 yards to MIA 20, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 17-J.Waddle to MIA 27 for 7 yards (20-J.Love).

The Three Options

GO -1.83 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.19 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 65, worth -3.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 23, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model