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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 46

New York Giants 6 – Miami Dolphins 10

What Actually Happened

(5:03) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.95 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 46, worth -2.66 EP
KICK -1.23 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 13, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP