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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 34

Miami Dolphins 17 – New York Giants 6

What Actually Happened

(8:47) 7-J.Sanders 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +0.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.27 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 34, worth -1.33 EP
KICK +0.69 EP
What Happened
  • 66% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 44, worth -1.89 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model