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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 38

New York Giants 6 – Miami Dolphins 17

What Actually Happened

(6:40) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley left tackle to MIA 35 for 3 yards (98-R.Davis; 8-J.Holland).

The Three Options

GO +1.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.34 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 38, worth -1.84 EP
KICK -0.04 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 47, worth -2.31 EP
PUNT -0.60 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model