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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 8 at the 30

Miami Dolphins 17 – New York Giants 9

What Actually Happened

(1:16) 7-J.Sanders 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO -0.14 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +1.31 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 30, worth -0.87 EP
KICK +1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 40, worth -1.15 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model