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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 60

Miami Dolphins 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(7:06) 5-M.Palardy punts 53 yards to NYG 7, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 83-P.Cooper.

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.87 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 60, worth -3.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 19, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model