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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 1

New York Jets 12 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(9:26) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short right to 86-R.Griffin for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.86 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 1, worth +0.67 EP
KICK +1.88 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model