Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- NYJ defense: +0.185 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
- QB edge to PHI: Zach Wilson (NYJ) -0.262 vs Gardner Minshew (PHI) -0.098 EPA/dropback (PHI starting Gardner Minshew in place of Jalen Hurts)
- PHI offense: +0.035 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 13
PHI
NYJ
Pulled fresh for 2021 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 12:46 TD NYJ (12:46) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short middle to 8-E.Moore for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 0 – NYJ 6
- Q1 09:33 TD PHI (9:33) 10-G.Minshew pass deep left to 88-D.Goedert for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-N.Shepherd]. PHI 6 – NYJ 6
- Q1 03:19 TD NYJ (3:19) (No Huddle) 2-Z.Wilson right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 7 – NYJ 12
- Q2 14:19 TD PHI (14:19) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass deep right to 88-D.Goedert for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 13 – NYJ 12
- Q2 09:26 TD NYJ (9:26) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short right to 86-R.Griffin for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 14 – NYJ 18
- Q2 04:36 TD PHI (4:36) (Shotgun) 14-K.Gainwell left guard for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 20 – NYJ 18
- Q2 00:22 FG PHI (:22) 4-J.Elliott 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs. PHI 24 – NYJ 18
- Q3 06:42 FG PHI (6:42) 4-J.Elliott 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs. PHI 27 – NYJ 18
- Q4 14:19 FG PHI (14:19) 4-J.Elliott 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs. PHI 30 – NYJ 18
- Q4 09:46 FG PHI (9:46) 4-J.Elliott 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs. PHI 33 – NYJ 18
Fourth-Down Decisions
-
Q2 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 1Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 64% p(FG) 99%
(9:26) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short right to 86-R.Griffin for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
-
Q2 NYJ 4th & 13 at the 78Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(2:22) 7-B.Mann punts 45 yards to PHI 33, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 18-J.Reagor MUFFS catch, and recovers at PHI 33. 18-J.Reagor ran ob at NYJ 47 for 20 yards (83-K.Yeboah).
-
Q2 PHI 4th & 10 at the 13Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 96%
(:22) 4-J.Elliott 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs.
-
Q3 PHI 4th & 14 at the 14Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 95%
(6:42) 4-J.Elliott 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs.
-
Q3 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 67Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(5:39) 7-B.Mann punts 33 yards to PHI 34, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-87-D.Brown.
-
Q3 PHI 4th & 1 at the 34Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70% p(FG) 73%
(1:24) 10-G.Minshew up the middle to NYJ 34 for no gain (95-Q.Williams; 56-Qu.Williams). Philadelphia challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 10-G.Minshew up the middle to NYJ 32 for 2 yards (95-Q.Williams; 56-Qu.Williams).
-
Q4 PHI 4th & 3 at the 25Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 52% p(FG) 87%
(14:19) 4-J.Elliott 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs.
-
Q4 PHI 4th & 4 at the 28Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48% p(FG) 83%
(9:46) 4-J.Elliott 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs.
-
Q4 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 37Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.44 EPp(convert) 31% p(FG) 66%
(5:29) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass incomplete short right to 25-T.Johnson.
-
Q4 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 56 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 53%
(:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short left to 25-T.Johnson to PHI 49 for 7 yards (57-T.Edwards).