Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 13 at the 78

New York Jets 18 – Philadelphia Eagles 21

What Actually Happened

(2:22) 7-B.Mann punts 45 yards to PHI 33, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 18-J.Reagor MUFFS catch, and recovers at PHI 33. 18-J.Reagor ran ob at NYJ 47 for 20 yards (83-K.Yeboah).

The Three Options

GO -2.38 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.80 EP
68% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 78, worth -4.31 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model