Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 67

New York Jets 18 – Philadelphia Eagles 27

(5:39) 7-B.Mann punts 33 yards to PHI 34, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-87-D.Brown.

The Three Options

GO -1.53 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.86 EP
60% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 67, worth -3.78 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model