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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 3 at the 56

New York Jets 18 – Philadelphia Eagles 33

What Actually Happened

(:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short left to 25-T.Johnson to PHI 49 for 7 yards (57-T.Edwards).

The Three Options

GO +0.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +0.73 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 56, worth -0.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 17, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model