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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 14 at the 47

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

What Actually Happened

(:51) 19-T.Morstead punts 40 yards to TB 7, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 25-G.Bernard.

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.60 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.05 EP
KICK -0.30 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.13 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model