4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
TB Away

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Bruce Arians
@
ATL Home

Atlanta Falcons

HC Arthur Smith
Sunday 2021-12-05 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta US 🏟 Dome Spread -11.0 O/U 51.0

Win Probability

TB
68.3%
ATL
31.7%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TB offense: +0.154 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • ATL defense: +0.065 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • Tom Brady (TB): +0.182 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • ATL offense: -0.052 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • TB defense: -0.070 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

TB 26
–
ATL 20
Projected margin: TB by 6 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

TB

Jaelon Darden WR Out Concussion
Jordan Whitehead S Out Calf
Jamel Dean CB Questionable Shoulder
Ali Marpet G Questionable Abdomen
Devin White LB Questionable Quadricep

ATL

Jonathan Bullard DE Out Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TB 30
–
ATL 17

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:00 TD TB (10:00) (No Huddle) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 7-L.Fournette for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 6 – ATL 0
  • Q1 06:44 TD ATL (6:44) 28-M.Davis left tackle for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 7 – ATL 6
  • Q1 04:30 TD TB (4:30) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 84-C.Brate for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 13 – ATL 7
  • Q2 08:43 FG ATL (8:43) 7-Y.Koo 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-19-T.Morstead. TB 13 – ATL 10
  • Q2 05:01 TD TB (5:01) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 87-R.Gronkowski for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 19 – ATL 10
  • Q2 00:27 TD ATL (:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left intended for 7-L.Fournette INTERCEPTED by 90-M.Davidson at TB 3. 90-M.Davidson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 20 – ATL 16
  • Q3 00:34 TD TB (:34) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 87-R.Gronkowski for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 26 – ATL 17
  • Q4 01:53 FG TB (1:53) 3-R.Succop 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion. TB 30 – ATL 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TB 4th & 4 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 64%

    (12:08) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 7-L.Fournette to ATL 32 for 6 yards (45-D.Jones).

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 9 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (2:13) 19-T.Morstead punts 43 yards to TB 19, Center-47-J.Harris. 25-G.Bernard to TB 20 for 1 yard (17-O.Zaccheaus).

  • Q1 TB 4th & 8 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (:52) 8-B.Pinion punts 60 yards to ATL 18, Center-97-Z.Triner. 35-A.Williams to ATL 25 for 7 yards (48-G.Stuard). FUMBLES (48-G.Stuard), and recovers at ATL 25.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 98%

    (8:43) 7-Y.Koo 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-19-T.Morstead.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 14 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 41%

    (:51) 19-T.Morstead punts 40 yards to TB 7, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 25-G.Bernard.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 4 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP
    p(convert) 52%

    (12:29) 8-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to ATL 16, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 35-A.Williams.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 15 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 39%

    (6:19) 19-T.Morstead punts 35 yards to TB 13, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 25-G.Bernard.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 13 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (13:36) 19-T.Morstead punts 53 yards to TB 25, Center-47-J.Harris. 25-G.Bernard to TB 31 for 6 yards (40-K.Smith; 30-Q.Ollison). ATL-92-A.Ogundeji was injured during the play.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 4 at the 48
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 39%

    (11:38) 8-B.Pinion punts 32 yards to ATL 16, Center-97-Z.Triner, downed by TB-21-K.Vaughn.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 12 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 27%

    (7:33) 19-T.Morstead punts 44 yards to TB 9, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 4 at the 13 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 96%

    (1:53) 3-R.Succop 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.