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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 38

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(12:08) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 7-L.Fournette to ATL 32 for 6 yards (45-D.Jones).

The Three Options

GO +0.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.53 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 38, worth -2.55 EP
KICK -0.23 EP
  • 64% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.44 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 47, worth -3.18 EP
PUNT -0.67 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model