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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 57

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 – Atlanta Falcons 17

What Actually Happened

(12:29) 8-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to ATL 16, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 35-A.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -0.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.63 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 57, worth -3.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.93 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 17, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP