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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 48

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 – Atlanta Falcons 17

What Actually Happened

(11:38) 8-B.Pinion punts 32 yards to ATL 16, Center-97-Z.Triner, downed by TB-21-K.Vaughn.

The Three Options

GO +0.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.88 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 48, worth -2.68 EP
KICK -1.01 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.75 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 14, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP