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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 8 at the 78

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(:52) 8-B.Pinion punts 60 yards to ATL 18, Center-97-Z.Triner. 35-A.Williams to ATL 25 for 7 yards (48-G.Stuard). FUMBLES (48-G.Stuard), and recovers at ATL 25.

The Three Options

GO -2.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.06 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 78, worth -4.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -2.19 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 35, worth -2.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model