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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 5 at the 48

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(7:54) 6-A.Cole punts 38 yards to WAS 10, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 1-D.Carter.

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.18 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 48, worth -2.49 EP
KICK -0.82 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 14, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP