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Washington Commanders

HC Ron Rivera
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LV Home

Las Vegas Raiders

HC Rich Bisaccia
Sunday 2021-12-05 · 16:05 Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas US 🏟 Dome Spread 1.0 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

WAS
48.0%
LV
52.0%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LV defense: +0.105 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • WAS offense: +0.025 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • LV on 4 more days rest than WAS
  • WAS defense: +0.074 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • Derek Carr (LV): +0.106 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

WAS 24
–
LV 25
Projected margin: LV by 1 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

WAS

Landon Collins S Out Foot
J.D. McKissic RB Out Concussion
Wes Schweitzer G Out Ankle
Ereck Flowers G Questionable Foot
Tyler Larsen C Questionable Knee
Curtis Samuel WR Questionable Groin
Ricky Seals-Jones TE Questionable Hip

LV

Carl Nassib DE Out Knee
Patrick Onwuasor LB Out Hamstring
Darren Waller TE Doubtful Back
Keisean Nixon CB Questionable Ankle
DeSean Jackson WR Questionable Calf
Josh Jacobs RB Questionable Ankle
Nick Kwiatkoski LB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

WAS 17
–
LV 15

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 17 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:44 TD WAS (9:44) 4-T.Heinicke pass short left to 82-L.Thomas for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 6 – LV 0
  • Q2 00:09 FG LV (:09) 2-D.Carlson 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-6-A.Cole. WAS 7 – LV 3
  • Q3 04:57 FG LV (4:57) 2-D.Carlson 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-6-A.Cole. WAS 7 – LV 6
  • Q4 13:34 TD WAS (13:34) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short right to 24-A.Gibson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 13 – LV 6
  • Q4 11:03 TD LV (11:03) 66-N.Martin reported in as eligible. 28-J.Jacobs left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 14 – LV 12
  • Q4 02:26 FG LV (2:26) 2-D.Carlson 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-6-A.Cole. WAS 14 – LV 15
  • Q4 00:42 FG WAS (:42) 16-B.Johnson 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 17 – LV 15

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LV 4th & 4 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 30%

    (6:21) 6-A.Cole punts 42 yards to WAS 10, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 1-D.Carter.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 2 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (3:19) 5-T.Way punts 54 yards to LV 12, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 13-H.Renfrow to LV 18 for 6 yards (22-D.Everett).

  • Q1 LV 4th & 3 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57%

    (2:19) 6-A.Cole punts 67 yards to WAS 8, Center-46-C.Tinker. 1-D.Carter to WAS 24 for 16 yards (22-K.Nixon).

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 4 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP
    p(convert) 50%

    (14:10) 5-T.Way punts 47 yards to LV 9, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, out of bounds.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 5 at the 48
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 39%

    (7:54) 6-A.Cole punts 38 yards to WAS 10, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 1-D.Carter.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 10 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 51%

    (1:49) 5-T.Way punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Touchback.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 18 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (12:13) 6-A.Cole punts 55 yards to WAS 10, Center-46-C.Tinker. 1-D.Carter to WAS 23 for 13 yards (22-K.Nixon; 46-C.Tinker).

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 15 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (8:27) 5-T.Way punts 53 yards to LV 18, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, out of bounds. PENALTY on LV-33-R.Teamer, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at LV 18.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 3 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 92%

    (4:57) 2-D.Carlson 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 7 at the 18 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 93%

    (2:26) 2-D.Carlson 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 1 at the 31 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 78%

    (:42) 16-B.Johnson 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.