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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 18 at the 65

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(12:13) 6-A.Cole punts 55 yards to WAS 10, Center-46-C.Tinker. 1-D.Carter to WAS 23 for 13 yards (22-K.Nixon; 46-C.Tinker).

The Three Options

GO -1.89 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.10 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 65, worth -3.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 23, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model