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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 7 at the 18

Las Vegas Raiders 12 – Washington Commanders 14

What Actually Happened

(2:26) 2-D.Carlson 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +1.18 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.50 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 18, worth -0.63 EP
KICK +1.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 28, worth -1.16 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model