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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 31

Washington Commanders 14 – Las Vegas Raiders 15

What Actually Happened

(:42) 16-B.Johnson 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.37 EP
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +2.19 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 31, worth -0.48 EP
KICK +1.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.66 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 41, worth -0.78 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model