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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 75

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(2:19) 6-A.Cole punts 67 yards to WAS 8, Center-46-C.Tinker. 1-D.Carter to WAS 24 for 16 yards (22-K.Nixon).

The Three Options

GO -0.97 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.44 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 75, worth -4.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.25 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 32, worth -1.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model